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Nuclear Power: Boon or Bane by Janki Padia
Several academicians believe that a mixed assortment of alternative energies will be needed if we are to replace fossil fuels and 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and to secure net-zero emissions by 2050. However, nuclear power is not an easy pill to swallow, not even in the progressive or climate circles.
INTRODUCTION
Nuclear power has been one of the most contentious issues in the environmental community. Today, nuclear power is at the forefront of energy policies for many countries once again as climate change only worsens. Several academicians believe that a mixed assortment of alternative energies will be needed if we are to replace fossil fuels and 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and to secure net-zero emissions by 2050. However, nuclear power is not an easy pill to swallow, not even in the progressive or climate circles because firstly, the nuclear industry is a large orthodox industry with a stern hierarchy. They have been hawking massive plants worth billions of dollars whilst producing hazardous nuclear waste with a history of corruption, special pleading, etc – not an appealing investment pitch for any progressive. Secondly, it is the men, no, mansplaining men who have flocked the industry, the internet calls them “Nuclear bros.” Limited success is only met by nuclear bros to outdo the environmentalist; however, things are changing on the gender front as more and more women are coming into the field out of environmental concerns, one such all-female nuclear advocacy group is Good Energy Collective.
Not only that but there has been a revival of debate, on whether or not that nuclear power is green energy as European Union declared nuclear power and natural gas to be green energy in February 2022. This inevitably also leads to the age-old question, is nuclear power a boon or bane? Before we come to any conclusions, we must explore the topic widely and thoroughly.
ORIGIN and HISTORY
Nuclear power came to the worldwide forefront after the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II. The American government had launched the Manhattan Project, successfully creating the atomic bomb technology working on the principle of nuclear fission. In the post-war period, it was only military technology that was sorted by countries the world over, which led to information censorship and stern control over technology & materials. It was only after President Eisenhower’s 1953 speech, Atoms for Peace that the idea of nuclear energy for civilian usage began to diffuse worldwide. The famed idea whilst acting as the pioneer of several nuclear programmes in developing countries also created anxiety as misuse of such a technology could lead to devastating effects as it spread. However, the threat of nuclear proliferation in the post-war era was restrained, some would even say confined to only 9 countries, which had created nuclear weapons out of 30 countries, which had nuclear knowledge and working reactors.
Nuclear energy gained the most attention as the alternative source of clean and secure means of energy as the climate crisis came to the forefront, which did not prove to aid the nuclear industry as it experienced stagnation since the 1980s, though recently there has been an uptake in the 21st century. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) during the Cold War predicted the possibility of a nuclear renaissance hinged upon the non-OECD countries, which were likely to experience expansion in nuclear energy whilst the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries between 2003-2030 would see no nuclear energy growth. These predictions hardly materialized as, at the end of 1983, six developing countries (Yugoslavia, the Republic of Korea, Argentina, Pakistan, Brazil, and India), all members of IAEA had in total of thirteen nuclear power plants with a combined capacity of around 5100 MWe, accounting for less than 2% of developing countries' total electricity production.
The Chernobyl disaster of 1968 as well as the Three Mile Island accident of 1979 only added to the stagnation but some believed that end of the nuclear era had arrived after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. It had encouraged a speedy shut down of nuclear power plants in Taiwan and Western Europe, Germany and Belgium, and Italy (wherein the votes were crushingly against renewal and reconstruction of the nuclear sector). However, the truth of the matter remained that the Fukushima disaster did not alter paths for the nuclear energy field because few of these governments had already planned to phase out nuclear energy before the disaster, the catastrophic event only nudged them faster in the same direction. Parallelly, other countries that were planning expansion before the disaster, stayed committed to their decision according to reports provided by OECD and NEA (Nuclear Energy Agency). Another observation of the same event after the Fukushima disaster could be made, wherein the perception of nuclear power was likely to be changed and nuclear safety became the chief issue, costs would increase on security whilst more severe precautious were taken by the operators and engineers. Profits would decrease. Public most of all became the biggest skeptics of nuclear energy and it would be the most cumbersome task to garner public support for the same. In the meantime, through the economic lenses economic, even the Western countries could not afford to pour billions into nuclear power and technology due to level high public debt and so, stagnation and a slow downward spiral continued worldwide for years to come as more nuclear power plants started closing thereafter.
Nuclear energy became one of the alternative clean energy once again as the climate crisis came to the forefront through COP26. Nuclear energy was predicted to be a major player in the initiative launched by the UN, the 24/7 Carbon-free Energy Compact. It led to various government commitments to expand nuclear power both at home and abroad. Yet, the nuclear industry did not bounce back and more nuclear power plants shut down in turn the reduced number of new nuclear plants did not produce the same amount of total output as the previous plant did. Despite some reactors curtailing generation to account for reduced demand or to offer load-following services, the global capacity factor in 2020 was still high at 80.3%, down from 83.1% in 2019, but maintaining the high performance seen over the last 20 years.
Safety issues, environmental issues, and nuclear waste issues are core matters behind the shutdowns. In 2021, there were 10 shutdowns worldwide, of which three were in Germany and three in the UK. However, the clear boost to the nuclear industry was provided by the Russia – Ukraine war which has disrupted the energy market entirely. Whilst Germany has decided to fire back their coal power plants and boost the production of renewables, Belgium has decided to keep two of its nuclear plants open which were previously to be shuttered down. France proclaimed to build fourteen new reactors and even Japan after the Fukushima disaster has decided to kickstart their nuclear production due to the energy threat provided by the Russia-Ukraine war as well as the threat of blackout in Tokyo in the middle of the highest heat wave ever recorded in Japan after a strong earthquake this spring. Out of 60 reactors in Japan, 24 have been decommissioned and five are currently operating. Another five have been approved to restart but are suspended for routine checkups, and three are under construction. The rest have not been approved to restart.
Meanwhile, in the US, the Biden administration is spending billions to subsidize existing plants, while states like New York and even California are looking to keep open plants that had been scheduled to close.
With the energy threat presented by the Russia-Ukraine war and the worsening climate crisis, there is a renewed hope for nuclear power. Currently, there are six types of nuclear reactors used in nuclear power plants and they are: Fast Neutron Reactor (FNR), Gas Cooled Reactor (GCR), Boiling Water Reactors (BWR), Light Water Graphite Reactor (LWGR), Pressurized Water Reactors (PHWR), Light Water Reactor (PWR). Currently, three key strategies with intention of reducing costs and increasing sustainability and safety have been adopted as new theoretical and technological innovations made in the nuclear power field:
Create new types of large LWRs - which are to be cheaper to build and operate whilst being safer. Areva with EPR designs and Westinghouse with AP1000 have taken these paths but have not been successful in their endeavors. Whilst simultaneously, several countries are trying to develop new types of “accident tolerant” fuels for LWRs, which would lessen the meltdown risk. However, data remains sparse, and early results have not been promising (Khatib-Rahbar et al. 2020)
Small modular reactors (SMRs) –are small LWRs with capacities of 300Mwe or below. Small modular LWRs could be somewhat safer than large LWRs by virtue of their size and lower rate of heat production, but they would produce more expensive electricity without employing measures to significantly cut capital and operating costs per megawatt (Lyman 2013)viii. Reduced construction and financing costs act as an attractive feature to SMRs which could be manufactured in factories and installed in either group or singularly to meet the electricity demand. SMRs are still developing technology, such as that of the 77 MWe NuScale reactor. SMR designs though sporting new features are fundamentally modified LWRs.
Non-Light-Water Reactor (NLWRs) – are reactors that are cooled by molten salts. liquid sodium and helium gas instead of water. This technology is pursued by start ups as well as established companies and could be built different range capacities of contemporary LWRs to micro-reactors of less than 10 MWe. To qualify as SMRs, the NLWRs must produce 300MWe or less. Various NLWR designers have put forward several designs, each claiming their designs to not only cut cost but also increase safety, decrease nuclear waste, reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation as well as efficient and resourceful use of uranium; such as the unsuccessful NLWR technology pursued by Transatomic. Apart from previously mentioned attractive aspects of the technology, they even promise features such as underground placement, modular structure as well as passive safety, some designs propose to have the capacity to deliver high-temperature process heat for manufacturing electricity. Whilst attractive, only a few NLWR developers have claimed that their designs not only would be demonstrated and licensed but also could be distributed and employed on a large scale in a decade or two.
Thorium reactor technology is also being pursued by India, the Western start-ups, and China pledged $3.3bn in 2017. The carbon-free thorium-based reactor is supposed to be less dangerous with a lower risk of meltdowns and hard to weaponize. However, the
journey of the reactor is uncertain because of the rise of quick and cheap renewables in comparison to the slow and costly road of the thorium reactor, whilst the unknown risk of environmental and health hazards loom overhead.
CURRENT SCENARIO, MARKET SHARE, AND PIPELINE PROJECTS
The Russia-Ukraine war has not only negatively impacted the climate crisis as well as energy markets. Whilst countries and companies push harder to counter these problems, the nuclear power firms are still clambering to live.
Électricité de France, Europe's largest nuclear power operator is on the road to being nationalized by the French government. The debt-riddled EDF was suspended on 13th July with shares suspended at the price of 10.2250 euros on 12th July. Concrete plans as to how the nuclear power firm will be nationalized will be unveiled before markets open on the 19th of July, commented the fiancé ministry. The French government has taken these steps as, EDF has been grappling with extraordinary outages at its nuclear fleet, delays and cost overruns in building new reactors, and power tariff caps imposed by the government to shield French consumers from soaring electricity prices. The French government already has 86 percent of the stake in the company and it's likely to buy out the rest 16 percent by paying up to 10 billion euros according to Reuters sources by making a voluntary offer on the market than to push a nationalization bill through Parliament. The EDF purchase would also include convertible bonds and premiums offered to minority stakeholders. That would translate into a buyout price of close to 13 euros per share, a 30% premium to current market prices but still a big loss for long-term shareholders, as the group was listed in 2005 at a price of 33 euros per sharex. As Europe deals with the energy crisis, it makes the EDF nationalization important because it would allow the French government not only control over the nuclear plants around France but also, it can easily restructure the group to its whims and demands.
The nuclear power firms in the United States of America have had rocky histories. The Westinghouse Electric Company, a nuclear designer company scrambled to finish its constructions whilst the FirstEnergy Solutions Corporation, a utility company competed against the cheap prices of renewables, both going bankrupt and only to emerge over the years. Even then FirstEnergy has been embroiled in several lawsuits, one wherein the company bribed several officials to gain application of Ohio House Bill 6, an energy policy with an overhaul value of approximately $1.3 billion, and secondly, another wherein the stockholders filed a suit against former executives for hurting the stock value.
Westinghouse in contrast filed bankruptcy in 2017 and emerged out of it in August 2018, after it was sold to Brookfield Business Partners by Toshiba. Their ratings were lowered as Fitch Group, a credit rating firm commented, “little demand for new nuclear power plants due to environmental risks, political/regulatory resistance, and lower priced natural gas.” However, those ratings have been improved as the same organization provides a positive outlook for the company as its derivation summary reads: WEC's ratings reflect its leading market position servicing the nuclear reactor market, strong technological capabilities, recurring demand-focused offering and prospects of improving profitability. These factors are weighed against its concentration in the nuclear energy market, which has faced secular challenges in core geographies and execution risks associated with its growth strategies. From a financial profile perspective, WEC's EBITDA margins are expected to exceed 20% and are relatively strong compared with 'B' category industrial issuers. Debt/EBITDA trending toward the low- to mid-4.0x range is consistent with the rating category.
A deal has also been signed between Ukraine and Westinghouse to supply nuclear fuel to all the Ukraine nuclear power stations, whilst contracting them to build nine new nuclear units instead of five as well as an engineering center in the country. Westinghouse as July 15th stands at 24.81 CAD, which means 19.04 USD.
Canadian Brookfield Asset Management, owns Westinghouse Electric Company through its subsidiary Brookfield Business Partners. The company bought Westinghouse at $4.6 billion in 2017 from Toshiba company, allowing Westinghouse to recover from status 11 or bankruptcy in 2018. Even though Westinghouse has been performing well, Litvak in Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Brookfield Business is wanting to sell Westinghouse, Litvak’s piece, which quotes Cyrus Madon, Brookfield’s chief executive officer: “Look, we’ve made many times our investment in Westinghouse. We’ve already pulled out more than our invested capital just through regular dividends. And I would say our job is sort of done here.” xiiIn 2021, whilst seeking out minority stakeholders, no sales were made. However, this year, they are wanting to sell the whole of the enterprise. The question remains as to why? The Russia-Ukraine war has already disrupted energy markets and nuclear energy has seen a surge in demand, is their wanting to sell Westinghouse out more than wanting to cash out at the right time?
There are several newcomers in the nuclear industry such as Trasatomic Power founded in 2011, which shut down in 2018 after running out of funding and backtracking its bold molten salt reactor claims. They have open-sourced their research if anyone would further like to work on it. NuScale Power, a company designing SMRs is one of the most popular nuclear firms in the U.S currently. In 2020, 8 out of 36 public utilities backed out of the UAMPS deal to help build the plants, which would completion delay of three years and finish in 2030, with costs increasing to $6.1 billion from $4.2 billion. In May 2022, NuScale Power signed a merger with Spring Valley Acquisition Corporation and became the world’s first publicly traded company focused on the design and deployment of SMR technology and today said that development, together with the newly announced strategic shift, will "bolster and accelerate" commercialisation of its technology. The NuScale stock price as of 15th July stands at 10.45 USD. On 14th March, TerraPower was founded by Bill gates and privately owned. The firm is set to receive $.8.5 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Research Project Agency – Energy (ARPA-E). The funding is part of the ARPA-E Optimizing Nuclear Waste and Advanced Reactor Disposal Systems (ONWARDS) program. Through the grant, TerraPower will research an experimental method for the recovery of uranium from used nuclear fuel with integrated safeguards that harness the volatility of chloride salts at high temperatures.
On the Asian front, Toshiba was a techno giant as well as the crown jewel of the Japanese industry with Toshiba Energy Systems & Solutions Corporation (Toshiba ESS) as its nuclear leg. However, the company lost face with its investors after a series of scandals and the misfortune of investment in Westinghouse, an American nuclear power firm. Then no more than three years, Toshiba was ousted from the top rank on Tokyo Stock Exchange. Mired in serious debt, the company was forced to sell off a valuable memory chip business and issue new shares to help pay down its liabilitiesxv. Effissimo (Singapore group) with ten percent of the company stake became the biggest stakeholder of Toshiba, becoming part of the foreign investors, who owned seventy-two percent of the company stake, unusual for a Japanese firm of high caliber. Toshiba of 2022, initially opposing buyout, now plans to solicit proposals from potential investors in a drastic change in stance. The nuclear unit, which is deemed important to Japan’s national security, could be the biggest obstacle to any deal.
Meanwhile, Toshiba ESS with its American counterpart Toshiba TAES has signed a deal for equipment delivery with Bechtel Power Corporation, an American construction, and engineering company for building Poland’s first nuclear power plant. Toshiba ESS as of 15th July stands at 5,330 JPY, which means 38.48 USD.
Nuclear power is promoted based on negligible greenhouse gas emissions, some experts believe that it should play a more important part in existing the use of fossil fuels. However, the problem at the heart of nuclear power lies according to Patrick Fragman, chief executive of Westinghouse Electric, “is a mix: It’s capital intensive but that doesn’t explain everything. The other side of the coin is the uncertainty.” He believes, unreliable and erratic political support along with fluctuating power cost does not make a fetching pitch. However, things are looking up for nuclear power as of now.
Pipeline Projects:
There is a surge in demand for nuclear power as nuclear power capacity increases worldwide. Presently, 440 nuclear reactors are running in 32 countries + Taiwan, providing 10 percent of world electricity (2553 TWh) in 2020. Fifty-five new reactors are under construction in 19 countries, the majority of these new plants are stationed in the United Arab Emirates, India, China, and Russia.
Whilst new reactors are underway, some of the countries to be more cost-effective have upgraded their existing plants, hence, increasing their nuclear capacity. In the USA, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved about 165 uprates totalling over 7500 MWe since 1977, a few of them 'extended uprates' of up to 20%. In Switzerland, all operating reactors have had uprates, increasing capacity by 13.4%. Spain has had a programme to add 810 MWe (11%) to its nuclear capacity through upgrading its nine reactors by up to 13%. Most of the increase is already in place. For instance, the Almarez nuclear plant was boosted by 7.4% at a cost of $50 million. Finland boosted the capacity of the original Olkiluoto plant by 29% to 1700 MWe. This plant started with two 660 MWe Swedish BWRs commissioned in 1978 and 1980. The Loviisa plant, with two VVER-440 reactors, has been uprated by 90 MWe (18%). Sweden's utilities have uprated three plants. The Ringhals plant was uprated by about 305 MWe over 2006-14. Oskarshamn 3 was uprated by 21% to 1450 MWe at a cost of €313 million. Forsmark 2 had a 120 MWe uprate (12%) to 2013.
Apart from that, another method to be more cost-effective to increase the lifetime of a nuclear plant. The usual lifetime of a nominal nuclear plant lasts 25 to 40 years however, engineering examinations believe it several reactors can function for a long time about 40- 60 years. Hence, license renewals were accorded to 85 reactors by NRC. These licenses were only granted to reactors that had already served 30 years of their lifetime, warranting the renewal of worn-off equipment and outdated control systems. In France, there are rolling ten-year reviews of reactors. In 2009 the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) approved EDF's safety case for 40-year operation of its 900 MWe units, based on generic assessment of the 34 reactors. There are plans to take reactor lifetimes out to 60 years, involving substantial expenditure. The Russian government is extending the operating lifetimes of most of the country's reactors from their original 30 years, for 15 years, or for 30 years in the case of the newer VVER-1000 units, with significant upgrades. While some pieces of legislation have allowed nuclear power plants a longer life, some have allowed premature closure of nuclear power plants, in Europe, and Japan, especially in the USA, wherein reactor numbers have reduced to 93 from 110.
COMPARING WITH OTHER ALTERNATIVE RENEWABLES
Nuclear power is but one of the renewable power options for lower greenhouse emissions, other available sources of renewable energy would be:
Solar – Photovoltaics (PV) and Solar Thermal
The PV market is ninety percent dominated by Crystalline silicon solar cells. The top commercial PV solar cell tech is grounded in screen printing of the metallic contacts, attaining 14% to 20% efficiency. At the top price, the efficiency of 22% to 24% can be gained through the heterostructure with intrinsic thin layer silicon solar cells and interdigitated back contact. Theoretically, the maximum efficiency of a laboratory cell is 29%, however, in practical working, the efficiency ranges from 25% to 26%.
Solar panels usually do not need much maintenance, however, if you see a deep in production of solar power, perhaps, it is time to clean the panels. It is recommended they are cleaned at least 2 to 4 times a year. If the solar panels are titled, the rainwater will clean away the dirt in monsoon, whilst in dry seasons a quick water down or wind blower blow would do. Usually, warranties do not cover the cleaning of solar panels but only replacement if they are damaged. Typically PV has a 25-year warranty and they can last up to 50 years if they are placed in dry locations.
The prices of Solar PV are higher than the pre-pandemic level in 2022 and they shall remain so in 2023 as well due to elevate commodity and freight prices according to IEA’s report, Renewable Energy Market Update: Outlook for 2022 and 2023. The report adds, However, their competitiveness actually improves, due to much sharper increases in natural gas and coal pricesxx. India is one of the leading players in solar markets and the government in 2021 under AtmaNirbhar Bharat –Production Linked Incentive scheme (PLI), schemes to create manufacturing global champions for an AtmaNirbhar Bharat have been announced for 13 sectors including manufacturing of ‘High Efficiency Solar PV Modules’. The government has committed nearly Rs. 1.97 lakh crores, over 5 years starting FY 2021-22 including Rs. 4500 crore for ‘High Efficiency Solar PV Modules’ which will be will be implemented by Ministry of New & Renewable Energy (MNRE). This commitment would also cover research and development costs for solar power as well.
Solar thermal
Good building design, which allows the use of natural solar heat and light, together with good insulation, minimises the requirement for space heating. Solar water heaters are directly competitive with electricity or gas in many parts of the world.xxii Sunlight is concentrated onto the receiver by the arena of sun-tracking mirrors, the collected or resulting is heat then used to create which powers the turbine to produce and yield electricity. The commercially established methods of concentrating sunlight are line focus concentrators (troughs, both reflective and refractive) and central receivers (heliostats and power towers).
The concentrator methods can be implemented on CPV systems. There is the possibility that it can create a round-the-clock power flow manufacture by storing heat at high temperatures in molten salt and creating thermochemical through concentrated sunlight. An identical amount of temperature as fossil and nuclear fuels can be realized by thermochemical or using mirrors. To keep them efficiently working, one must note that these concentrators must be placed in dry locations with low levels of diffuse radiation.
Whilst solar thermal electricity is part of the analogous market as PV, this tech to acquire competitive costs must be used on a big scale which acts as a cost barrier as well as a financial risk factor. As of now, PV tech evolution as well deployment is a hundred times quicker than solar thermal and the future of solar thermal with thermal storage is uncertain whilst it competes with PV tech which comes along with load management and storage. The solar thermal plant must be serviced once a year for maintenance. As of 2022, USA is funding $25 million for innovative projects as part of research and development for solar thermal energy.
Hydroelectric energy
Sixteen percent of the world’s energy is created by hydroelectricity, one of the most advanced technologies. Generally, hydro involves construction of a dam on a river impounding a lake; construction of pipes or tunnels; and installation of an electrical turbine and power lines. Some hydro systems are ‘run-of-river’, which means that only small offtake weirs are needed.
Hydro cites are most developed in already developed countries whilst developing countries may have opportunities but they are often hampered by stern and fierce socio-environmental moments on the accounts of widespread flooding of farmlands, cities, and delicate river valleys. The maintenance of hydroelectric power plant is divided in 3 check-ups: Hydropower system routine and non-routine service contracts, Hydropower system review and operational optimisation, Hydropower system upgrades and improvementsxxv. As of 2022, USA has pledged no less than $47 million on hydropower and Indian hydro power giant NHPC has also been hiked investment to Rs 7,361.05 crore for 2022-23, from the revised estimate (RE) of Rs 6,772.21 crore for the ongoing fiscal. The budget estimate stood at Rs 8,057.44 crore.
Geothermal and tidal
Geothermal and tidal energy fall are regional energy resources and hence, cannot participate as a global resource. Geothermal energy is gained by the heat present beneath the earth. There are several ways to do it, steam can be harvested for direct use or to produce electricity. Another way is derived heat is from the hot rocks available on the surface of volcanic regions such as that Indonesia, Iceland, etc. Lastly, hot dry rock technology can be used in specifically correct geological regions, wherein masses of slightly radioactive rock buried kilometres below the surface become hot, allowing harvesting of heat at a temperature of around 300 degrees Celsius. Cold water is injected under pressure to fracture the rock, and allow steam to be extracted. This technology is not heavily used. Geothermal is low maintenance due to the fact that geothermal systems only have few movable parts which are sheltered inside a building, the life span
of geothermal heat pump systems is relatively high. Heat pump pipes even have warranties of between 25 and 50 years, while the pump can usually last for at least 20 years. As of 2022, it is forecasted that the geothermal market would worth $7.1bn by 2030.
Standard hydro tech is used to harvest energy from tidal flows. In a typical system, a weir is constructed across an estuary, and water flows through turbines as the tides rise and fall. It is uncommon to come across a site which not only affords large tidal ranges as well as a modest environmental impact. Inspection and maintenance are costly. As of 2022, USA has pledged $25m on tidal or wave energy research and development.
Bio and ocean energy
Bioenergy is biomass energy, wherein sunlight is turned into chemical energy. It cannot compete against PV and solar thermal energy. Bioenergy conversion efficiency is generally much less than 1 percent, while solar thermal and PV is 15–50 percent efficientxxx. Not only that but producing biomass needs vast lands, fertilizers, water, and pesticides. Biomass is an essential commercial energy contributor to small developing economies but it would play no large part in advanced economies because of its intrinsic production restrictions. Developing countries extensively use biomass energy for cooking or heating, however, there is a ready swap of biomass in exchange for electricity or gas when family income increases. The great flexibility of PV systems in terms of scale of deployment is likely to make a large impact in this respectxxxi. Biomass boilers are low maintenance and cleaned daily, should be kept ash free.
Ocean energy comprises energy from waves, ocean currents, temperature gradients within the deep ocean, and gradients of salt concentrationxxxii. It is only with more advanced technology than the present time that wave energy can act as a substantial source of energy, however, even then exposure to a high level of seas as well as specific seafloor conditions are to be needed. Being more inherently limited due to its production needs, it can only become a minor energy source at a universal scale. Ocean thermal energy conversion application typically includes maintenance of machinery and removal of biological growth on submerged sections. The life cycle of a platform for this type of facility is straightforward and has well-established procedures. The ocean thermal energy conversion working fluid pumping systems are commercially available and have a relatively low cost, however, they require significant maintenance. Cable operation and maintenance includes periodic marine growth removal, full cable inspection, and annual maintenance of substations. Other maintenance costs include replacement parts, component design duty and known service intervals, time to complete service, cost of personnel, and material standby.
Wind energy
If put placed in a suitable place, Modern MW-scale wind generators are part of the cheapest electricity generation tech on market. A modern wind generator comprises a tower, a rotating nacelle atop the tower housing generator and control electronics,
and three blades facing into the wind. Wind farm constitutes of hundreds of wind generators equally spaced apart at 5-10 rotor diameters. Usually, farming continues around the wind generators that are placed in the farmlands. Shallow offshore wind farms are expected to grow in large numbers in the future, because not only does it provides increased space but also wind speeds are usually higher over water. Wind and PV are often a good combination in that they counter-produce; it is often windy when not sunny, and vice versa. For the next many decades in numerous countries, it’s possible for PV and wind to highest deployment rates for electricity production, however, they are likely to meet with mechanical or technical and economic barriers.
Commercial wind generators have power ratings of 1–8 MW. Vestas V164 as of now is the largest existing wind turbine with a capacity of 8MW with 220 meters maximum blad tip height and 164 rotor diameters. Tall towers in windy sites are preferred because higher average wind speed means a higher capacity factor, which in turn means lower energy cost. Offshore wind farms have a higher capacity due to speedy winds blowing over the water, hence, new bigger, and taller machines are replacing the initially installed small and now old machines. Wind electricity is now fully competitive with fossil and nuclear electricity in many places throughout the world (IRENA 2015).
There are four types of maintenance for the wind farms and they are: Corrective Maintenance, Preventive Maintenance, Condition-Based Maintenance, Predictive Maintenance. As of 2022, USA has pledge $114m for wind energy.
COMPARING WITH CONVENTIONAL FUEL
Unlike conventional fuel (fossil fuels), nuclear power is harvest energy from an atom, either through nuclear fusion or fission. The electricity is produced, when the fuel has its atom split into one or more nuclei, releasing heat which is then used to boil a cooling agent, usually water. Steam or pressurized water then produced is used to spin turbines to create electricity. As of now, only nuclear fission reactors are working commercially to produce electricity, wherein they uranium as their chief fuel.
If not for conventional fuels, petroleum, coal, and natural gas, the industrialization of modern economies would not have been possible. It is only in the recent past that energy alternatives have been embraced by governments worldwide and as a result, renewables and nuclear energy has boomed. Nuclear power commercially came into practice in the 1950s, and since then, it has been a source of contention for policymakers, citizens, scientists, etc. The question was asked then and it is asked even today, whether nuclear power is a safe sustainable source of energy? As of 2022, the EU has declared nuclear and natural gas to be “green energy,” however, this move has divided the EU into two camps pro-nuclear and anti nuclear with Austria and Luxembourg threatening legal action against the decision. However, the paradox of nuclear energy is not felt by the EU alone but the entire world and hence, it has become increasingly important to be informed about the advantages and disadvantages of nuclear energy before any decisions are taken by policymakers, politicians, and most importantly by citizens.
Advantages:
Carbon Free electricity – Nuclear energy does not produce green gases such as carbon dioxide, one of the major drivers of climate change. However, it does not mean that there is no pollution in process of gaining nuclear fuel (uranium) through mining, refining, etc. Not only that but it also creates the problem of nuclear waste.
Small Land Footprint - Nuclear power plants need more space than other renewable options such as that wind and solar. According to the Department of Energy, a typical nuclear facility producing 1,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity takes up about one square mile of space, whilst solar PV takes up 75x and wind farms take 370x more space.
High Power Output – Nuclear power plants have a higher capacity for energy production compared to renewables. The pro-nuclear camp promotes nuclear energy as a firm energy source providing “baseload electricity,” which means minimum amount of electric power needed to be supplied to the electrical grid at any given time. One must also note that the demand for power in the grid fluctuates. There is a murmur of nuclear power potentially becoming a baseload electricity supplier instead of coal power plants, especially in the USA as nuclear energy generated one of fifth the energy consumed in 2020. However, the question remains is it the only reliable source of baseload electricity? Renewables generated 20% percent of the USA's electricity and will produce 40% by 2050 according to EIA but it still cannot entirely decarbonize the grid by 2035 to stall climate change. Yet, hope for renewable supplying the baseload is on the horizon as the market for utility-scale battery storage is exploding; it increased by 214 percent in 2020, and the EIA predicts that battery capacity will surge from its current 1,600 megawatts to 10,700 by 2023. Whilst nuclear has a reduced carbon footprint than renewables, some consider the by products of nuclear power too high a price to pay.
We must also note that whilst the carbon footprint of nuclear energy is lower than any renewables and if we increase the nuclear power plant numbers by threefold, it would result in a modest 6% carbon reduction. Meanwhile, the boost and consumption of renewables such as solar will surpass the mere 6%. Herein, the future is more important than the present because we need a quick rate of carbon reduction which can only be solved by renewables as they are easily available, cheap, and flexible. With increased consumption of renewables, they are likely to more suited to carbon mitigation than nuclear power plants, which are slow, risky, and expensive endeavors.
d. Reliable Energy Source – the availability and perpetual generation of energy certainly make nuclear an attractive option to be a reliable supplier of baseload electricity to the grid. It also provides maximum output energy (93%), higher than any other fuel.
Disadvantages:
Uranium is a non-renewable resource – the nuclear fission reactors chiefly use uranium as their fuel, however, uranium core is a limited resource. Based on the known mining reserves of uranium there is about 200 years of uranium, if we consume it at the current rate. Even so, the number of reactors being built is increasing, hence the speedy depletion of uranium. Not only but uranium mining and processing contribute to climate change.
The pro-nuclear energy camp in their idealistic belief always points out the factor of undiscovered uranium, which is a gamble too risky. They also speak of the 5000-year worth of uranium buried beneath the ocean, a mere concentration of 3.3 parts per billion. The energy it takes to lift a bucket of seawater by 50 metres is equal to the energy you'd get from its uranium. The energy return on investment simply doesn't add up. Another suggestion is a technological upgrade lifetime of fuel, a promise of breeder style Generation, allowing the fuel to last sixty years. Such pieces of machinery would be impressive, and so would be the advanced materials in them but the same aspect can create a problem because we do not have fixes to all the issues an advanced material.
Higher upfront costs – Building a nuclear power plant is an expensive endeavor but operating one is a low cost. The nuclear power plant needs several safety measures, not only for the reactor but the building, and people themselves, hence, the costs increase. On top of that is the cost of acquiring the fuel, which involves mining, processing, transporting, and then burning it, not to mention then deal with nuclear waste. When the fuel cycle ends, the nuclear power plants are decommissioned at a costly prove. For example, UK nuclear power stations’ decommissioning cost soars to £23.5bn in 2022.
Nuclear Waste – Nuclear power plants globally produce about 10,000 tonnes of spent fuel waste per annum. When a spent fuel rod is removed from a reactor, the radiation level is so high that a one-minute dose at a metre's distance is lethal to humans. The used rods are hot and they need to be cooled, hence, they are placed into the water pool for 5-10 years and when the space in the pool runs out, they are transferred into dry casks, a thousand-tonne container. An expensive robot arm is used to transfer the rod from the fuel or water pool into a dry cask, which costs $ 1 million each, and another $50, 000 is spent on filling the cask with helium and welding it shut. The dry casks can rest on the ground for the next 50 years to cool down before they are placed into a deep expensive underground depositary but no country has ever been able to succeed to create one, even USA. They had decided to store all their nuclear waste in the desert region of Nevada with all the safety measures but the state voted against it and the depositary never came to be.
Dry casks are too overly reliant because there is always a possibility of leak or corrosion and replacement casks are simply added expense. The underground depository is also preferred because some of the isotopes remaining in the casks have a lifetime of ten thousand years and so, they must be stored safely but the transfer of rods from dry casks into a special depository canister is an extremely pricey affair of $50 billion (which includes the price of special canister and repackaging equipment). After the special canisters are stored underground, bentonite clay is used to delay the penetration of water and moisture. Even then, their safety is not guaranteed because canisters over time crack and this process can be accelerated by the isotopes presented within the canister and externally by the natural bacteria. Once there is a leak, radioactive iodine-129 isotopes from the fuel can diffuse through rock. Radioactive actinides from the spent fuel are released into the biosphere through the water. If the depository for any reason is flooded and the canisters are broken, several chemical reactions will transpire, counting the volatile blends of oxygen and hydrogen. There are murmurs of recycling the waste and using reactors, however, that too will be a costly affair, with other millions spent.
Malfunctions can be disastrous – Nuclear meltdowns occur when the heat transferred to cooling systems is lower than the heat produced by the reactor, which causes a meltdown. Hot radioactive vapors can pour out of the reactor and meltdown or explode the entire power plant whilst spewing injurious radioactive material into the vicinity. The worst nuclear disasters ever to be recorded are Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima.
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF ASSOCIATED RISKS
The nuclear accident at Fukushima and Chernobyl as well as Three Mile Accident remain fresh in the public memory. Before we invest in nuclear energy, we must thoroughly know the risks. Some of them are:
Safety Questions
The public perception of nuclear power in terms of safety has always been a major obstacle, one of the chief reasons why so many nuclear power plants are shutting down and several governments have decided on the phase-out policy for nuclear power plants. However, the truth is that nuclear power is much safer than fossil fuels. Indeed, coal and oil act as ‘invisible killers’ and are responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide. In 2018 alone, fossil fuels killed 8.7 million people globally. The public apprehension is caused by only three nuclear accidents: the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, the 1979 Three Mile Island Accident, and the 2011 Fukushima disaster, and it was only the Chernobyl disaster that caused any direct deaths.
Technological evolution in the nuclear field has made new reactors much safer, especially in the case of reactors with passive safety features. These features automatically deploy safety protocols if there is any danger, not needing any personnel to do so. Today’s new-generation reactors are already ten times safer than the previous generation of reactors, as addressed in the referenced Center on Global Energy Policy study on advanced reactor design. Even beyond reactor design itself, nuclear fuel is increasingly safe, with material improvements that reduce the risk and potential severity of accidents. Not only but nuclear safety has almost become a culture that is regulated by the IAEA, which has published 128 documents regarding nuclear safety and cratering to safety concerns of various types of power plants. These safety standards and protocols are revised with time and evolving technology. They even work closely with the government, other organizations, and programmes that need technical aid in the nuclear field.
The Convention on Nuclear Safety (1994) is considered to be the principal international nuclear safety agreement, ratified by eighty countries. The World Association of Nuclear Operators and the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations are organizations established by nuclear companies to share information and techniques in the nuclear industry. All the promises still raise eyebrows around the world as Iran and North Korea are not parties to the Convention of Nuclear Safety, whilst still running nuclear programmes. The Iranian Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is sitting in a high seismic zone, which potentially puts not only the country itself but other West Asian countries at risk. It was in 2015 that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran deal was reached between P5+EU and Iran, establishing that the Iranian nuclear programme is solely peaceful. It also includes Iran working closely with IAEA and EU on front of safety standards and concerns. IAEA as an international regulator of nuclear programmes has also helped grow and sustain independent regulators in domestic industries to implement safety standards.
Waste
Nuclear waste remains the unsolved obstacle to nuclear power, especially when it is coupled with the safety issue. However, the issue is not only technical but more political in nature if given second a glance. Proliferation is one highest risks when it comes to reprocessing nuclear waste, not only that but the question of storage comes in and it is then that the issue becomes more difficult. The spent nuclear fuel has long lived hazardous substances such as plutonium, which increase the risk of nuclear hazards, even if they are to be stored in the nuclear repository, which is hard to come by in the first place. It is here that the issue turns political because no territory wants to become a nuclear waste dumping ground, it has been seen in the case of Yucca Mountain, USA. After billions were spent to develop and prepare a site to house spent nuclear fuel, the facility was scrapped in 2009 due to policy – and, according to some, political – concerns with the plan in Nevada.
Viewing from the lenses of technology, there are only two viable options when it comes to nuclear waste: new advanced reactors are built to burn the entire element in the reactor, leaving no waste, or build reprocessing technology with deployment for spent fuel to harness useful substances such plutonium or uranium. Today, there is a surge in the number of nuclear power plants, bringing along the issue of proliferation and the high potential of nuclear disaster. Technical solutions then become vital to the nuclear industry, otherwise, nuclear waste management will forever remain politically charged even when it is a much safer source of energy than fossil fuels. One of the political solutions was the deal reached between Russia and Iran, wherein Iran sent spent fuel to Russia for reprocessing. However, such agreements are always changing with times and leaders in power, hence, a much more domestic and long-termed sustainable tactic is welcomed. Nuclear proliferation can also be considered a risk to energy technology because for any new reactor or reprocessing design to be viable politically, it must demonstrate that the risk of contributing to future proliferation is less than whatever system it is replacing. However, the non-proliferation remains strong, when it comes to new reactors.
Nuclear Proliferation
The nuclear proliferation of not just a technological issue as already established but also a deeply political one. Nuclear proliferation especially becomes a risk in terms of nuclear weapons programme such as that of North Korea as well as Iran (even after the JCPOA). The diffusion of nuclear technology also brings to the forefront, the issue of the advent of 3D printing (which can create nuclear pertinent gears without worrying about a transparent supply chain) and internet accessibility of explicit technical data.
Initially, regional security in terms of the nuclear programme was not an issue because, before the 2000s, not all countries could afford nuclear weapons to compete with their nuclear-armed neighbor as they did not have adequate tech or the resources. However, there are exceptions to be made such as China in the 1960s, India and Pakistan in the 1970s and 1980s, and Iran and North Korea in the 1980s and 1990s, who were prepared to take a needed gamble to make a much-required investment for their strategic motivation. However, this momentum lost support with the Non Proliferation Treaty, which today has 191 signatories and acts as the cornerstone of nuclear non-proliferation, seeking nuclear disarmament. However, heightened regional tensions have recently had several countries reconsider the status of their non-nuclear weapons. Ukraine war has revived the nuclear question in South Korea as well as Japan. South Korea already troubled with North Korea’s increasing arsenal is worried that nuclear-armed North Korea would get away with a lot in a war scenario as nuclear-armed Russia has with unarmed Ukraine due to the fear of nuclear war. In one recent survey of South Koreans, 71 percent of the respondents supported arming the country with nuclear weapons, according to a research paper published in February by the Carnegie Endowment and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.Even the former Japanese PM had begun saying loudly and publicly that Japan should, indeed, think seriously and urgently about nuclear weapons, when Ukraine was invaded. Looking through regional security lenses, he makes an essential of Japan surrounded by nuclear-armed North Korea and China (which are becoming increasingly aggressive). Mr. Abe’s nuclear policy was not to build Japanese nuclear weapons but to borrow US nuclear weapons on Japanese soil as do many countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, etc.
Non-proliferation also acts as foreign policy, especially when states engage in nuclear trade. Nonproliferation standards were adopted as conditions for nuclear trade by the USA and even Japan as it engaged with India for nuclear cooperation in 2016. However, this is not a standard policy for all states as Russia exported its reactors to Iran and China too built reactors in Pakistan. Coming to the technical part of the proliferation, in the past, national industry and sophisticated procurement networks were necessary to facilitate proliferation, but future proliferators might need far less infrastructure and support, reducing their detection risk and identification profilesliii. There is a real risk of unobserved proliferation due to the extensive availability of mechanical or technical data on complex nuclear processes and state capacity to create their own gears to evade limitations set by the international export. This risk pushes countries to secrecy as well as sets limitations on nuclear commerce. IAEA and NSG are a few organizations striving to better nuclear safeguards, security, and export controls. Perhaps, the evolution of tech and reactor design in itself could lessen the proliferation risk.
The potential and value of nuclear power for energy production, climate change management, and contributions to a reliable alternative to existing sources are real but, clearly, so are the challenges.
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SUSTAINABILITY CONCERNS
Environmental Concerns
Radioactivity is the core of the environmental concerns when it comes to nuclear power as it not only affects the large vicinity of the area but also takes a long time to retreat if it ever does. Stern regulations implemented on the civil nuclear power plants, only small limited exposure of iodized radiation to be emitted into the atmosphere as part of natural background radiation. Apart from that uranium mining, nuclear waste, and climate change are at the center of environmental concerns.
Uranium mining (3 ways):
Underground mining – wherein there is workers are exposed to extreme or high levels of colorless, odorless radioactive radon gas. The gas is forged through the natural breakdown of uranium into water, soil, and rocks. It only increases the risk of lung cancer among the uranium miners but also pneumoconiosis in case of cave-ins.
Open pit mining – as the name suggests, it’s a pit that is created on the surface of the terrain by blasting 30 times more earth or there is the removal of rock, soil, and trees from the terrain with help of industrial equipment. The mining leave behind the waste rock, which is stored by the mine and is radioactive and toxic in nature. The exposure of the rock may also cause hazards by polluting air or water, not only that but the removal of the top surface from the terrain leaves the area suspectable to erosion as well as landslides.
ISL mining – herein, a uranium dissolving liquid is pumped underground to uranium ore, only to channel the liquid uranium mineral to the surface. It is the most popular mining technique and has chief operations in Texas, Wyoming, and Nebraska. It releases a high amount of radon gas and creates wastewater and slurries for the recovery of uranium from the liquid which is pumped back to the surface. The gravest concern is the restoration of natural groundwater, which is leached away as the project commences. All the attempts of restoration have failed as it's virtually impossible to do so.
Uranium mining dropped after the 1980s in the USA but its effects still linger. The case of environmental injustice is made by the thousands of abandoned uranium mines littered around in the southwest of the country, for example, several mines present in Navajo Nation by the Grand Canyon National Park. These mines act as a health threat to the Colorado River ecosystem as several communities in the vicinity are already suffering from environmental contamination. Noticeable symptoms are under-addressed cancer and disease clusters, and toxic spills.
Nuclear Waste: More than quarter million metric tons of highly radioactive waste sits in storage near nuclear power plants and weapons production facilities worldwide, with over 90,00 metric tons in the US alone. It is not only a notorious safety risk but also an environmental risk. Nuclear waste can be categorized as:
Low-level waste (LLW) –is all the items that are exposed and contaminated by neutron radiation. Starting from shipment containers and clothes, bags, etc of the NNP worker along with everything used in clean-up of the nuclear waste. Usually contains only one percent of the radioactivity in nuclear waste and is sent to land-based disposal.
High-level waste (HLW) - is the waste found in the pools of nuclear power plants. After they are sufficiently cooled for a few years, they are stored in dry casks for further cooling and then transferred to special canisters to be placed into the underground repository.
Intermediate level waste (ILW) –are long-living radioisotopes that are stored and then transferred to a geological repository. Defense-related waste in the USA is similar to ILW and they store it in New Mexico's deep geological repository of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.
Spent nuclear fuel –is used fuel from the reactors which are no longer functioning. “It is both deadly and long-lasting,” says Geoffrey Fettus, a senior attorney at NRDC and director of NRDC’s nuclear team.lvi “It remains dangerous to people’s health and the environment for millennia.” Even a U.S. federal court described the time frame as “seemingly beyond human comprehension. For example, iodine-129…has a half-life of 17 million years.lvii” Previously the spent nuclear fuel would only be considered waste but with the evolution of technology, the spent fuel can be reprocessed to option materials such as leftover uranium, plutonium, etc. Lowering the age of the spent fuel by a hundred or more years. However, reprocessing spent fuel remains a costly affair and any accident occurring through the process may cause health as well as an environmental hazard.
Climate Change: Like any other plants, nuclear plants are susceptible and vulnerable to climate change. The fluctuation in temperature of air and water, increases in sea levels, wind speed and pattern, etc can affect the efficiency of nuclear reactors or plants. Not only can it cause operators to shut down or cut back generators but also increase environmental and safety risks along with the cost of nuclear power.
An increase in water temperature can heat the cooling water which is needed to cool and ensure the safety of spent fuel, etc. the nuclear power plant. River water is used as cooling water in inland reactors, however, due to the rising temperature of waters along with heatwaves, several nuclear power plants have either temporarily shut down or cut back the generation. The cooling water is released back into rivers; however, nuclear power plants have fixed temperatures for the water which is to be released back into the river. With warm water entering the nuclear power, even warmer water is being released back into rivers as several power plants, such as Turkey Point and Millstone Plant have asked NRC to increase the temperature limit of water that is to be released into the environment. The released warmer waters are hazardous to the ecosystem.
Flooding and hurricane have extensively damaged nuclear power plants in the past and they continue to do, they even pose a risk by cutting access to much-needed cooling water. Whilst the Fukushima disaster of 2011 is one example of flooding, the NRC has concluded that 55 of the 61 evaluated U.S. nuclear sites face flooding
hazards beyond what they were designed to withstand (yet it has failed to require updates based on that information). Even the storage of nuclear waste in decommissioned plants is threatened by climate change through flooding, earthquake, etc causing a health and environmental disasters.
Sustainability Concerns
Nuclear power has been labeled as a “green source” of energy by the EU as of 2022. Compared to conventional fuels, nuclear power provides several advantages such as low life cycle GHG emissions, energy security during periods of price volatility, stable and predictable generation costs, previous internalization of most externalities, small and managed waste volumes, productive use of a resource with no competing uses, firm base load electricity supplies, and synergies with intermittent energy sources. Another label given to nuclear power is that of “weak sustainability” because it is not sustainable by itself but aided by manmade machines such as fuel cycles, advanced reactors, etc and also.
While advantageous, the nuclear area has several areas to improve and those are: lowering the construction costs, achieving public acceptance, disposing of nuclear waste, the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation, nuclear fuel cycle, etc. Some fear the nuclear industry will fade away if there are no further breakthroughs and innovations in tech. Not only that but
even the public and governments must be actively engaged in the field. As of 2022, USA in an effort to stave off more closures, the federal government began subsidizing older nuclear plants, opening up a $6 billion fund authorized in 2021's Infrastructure Investment and Jobs
Act this year. That law also set aside an additional $2.477 billion for the research and development of advanced nuclear reactor technology. Sustainability as the Department of Energy (USA) puts it “extend natural resource utilization” and “reduce the burden of nuclear waste for future generationslxi.” We are looking for long-term energy solutions, long term nuclear sustainability is advised as well as needed. This can be achieved in two ways:
Use natural uranium more efficiently than LWRs: It would be remarkable if we could produce the same amount of energy from reduced usage in advanced nuclear reactors, it would help conserve uranium. The radioactive resource is by no means renewable or infinite but it is not going out of supply anytime soon and hence, there is less motivation in the nuclear industry to craft such generators. The latest assessment of resources by the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2020 found that identified recoverable uranium resources would be sufficient to fuel the global nuclear reactor fleet for more than 135 years at the 2019 rate of consumption (just under 400 gigawatts of electricity) (NEA 2020). Better recovery methods could make available up an additional 40 years’ worth of consumption. In the worst-case scenario, even if we do run out of surface uranium, there is a large amount of low-concentration uranium present in the ocean. However, this scenario then pushes for uranium efficient generators and increased prices of uranium.
Uranium mining is another issue that must be dealt with because not only does it causes health hazards but environmental too. There is a need to explore more modern and effective uranium mining and processing techniques (many not entirely harmless) and they must be regulated with stern measures and supervision.
Uranium efficient reactors would not only conserve the uranium resource but also aid reduces environmental and health hazards by dipping the necessity for mining. Even if it is possible, we must then deal with the environmental risks that the fuel cycles of uranium efficient reactors pose. Increasing uranium efficiency usually entails reprocessing spent fuel, which generates a number of different radioactive waste streams and emits radioactive gases into the atmosphere—many with wide-reaching health and environmental impacts themselves.
To capitalize on the natural uranium utilization, NLWRs must be able to effectively use depleted uranium (remaining material generated through the enrichment process) as fuel. Depleted uranium has a U-235 content of 0.3 percent or belowlxiv. Current LWRs are fuelled by enriched uranium, which is only a minor portion extracted from natural uranium whilst the leftover uranium or depleted uranium is called “tails;” which is nothing but nuclear waste stored in the repository. As of 2020, the production of one year’s supply of enriched uranium for a typical LWR—20 metric tons—generates about 180 metric tons of depleted uraniumlxv. This leftover material is gathered as nuclear waste because there is not enough capital in the market to re enrich as fuel for LWRs. The DOE now holds more than 500,000 metric tons of uranium tails in the form of uranium hexafluoride gas, requiring hundreds of football fields’ worth of storage space as of 2020lxvi. Though “tails” is less radioactive, they would in long run needed to be deposited in a geologic repository.
b. Generate less waste requiring long-term disposal or use of reprocessed or “recycled” material from the spent fuel.
Long-lived isotopes make up the part of spent fuel produced by the LWRs and they must be isolated from the environment for thousands of years to avoid health or environmental hazard; the only way to do so is to store the waste in a geological repository. The issue with a deep geological repository is that no territory wants to become a dumping ground for nuclear waste and hence, no countries have been able to make progress in this direction except for Finland (whose reserves of nuclear waste are lower as it a small country).
The spent fuel or radioactive waste is produced by all reactors and fuel cycles and they must be disposed in a safe geological repository. It is a cumbersome process to establish a geological repository as it is littered with several technical trials and political complications. However, some pro-nuclear advocates of reprocessing reason that, geologic disposal space will be scarce and valuable in the future and must be conserved by reducing nuclear waste volume. New generations of reactors can contribute to the nuclear waste and storage issue by producing less nuclear waste than LWRs, whilst producing the same amount of electricity. It would even be more impressive if the new reactors could proficiently use actinides extracted from existing LWR waste as new fuel, in other terms, it is falsely worded as “burning” of nuclear waste, this would not only reduce the current stockpile of nuclear waste but also conserve space in the repository.
Forecasts
Today the world is going through not only an energy crisis but a climate crisis as well and nuclear energy can lend help in both arenas. Governments worldwide have increasingly become aware and pushing for reliable alternative sources of energy in hopes of reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. They are also trying to achieve their goal of zero greenhouse emissions by 2050. Nuclear energy, with its 413 gigawatts (GW) of capacity operating in 32 countries, contributes to both goals by avoiding 1.5 gigatonnes (Gt) of global emissions and 180 billion cubic metres (bcm) of global gas demand a year. While wind and solar PV are expected to lead the push to replace fossil fuels, they need to be complemented by dispatchable resources. Nuclear power is still developing but has huge potential along with deployment or shipment feature, allowing to help create diverse low emissions electricity systems in countries which does allow nuclear power.
Advanced economies have lost market leadership - Whilst seventy percent of universal nuclear capacity belongs to the advanced economies, the domestic markets are not doing well. There is a lack of investment, the projects underway are already behind the schedule with increasing costs that are way beyond the budget. As a result, the project pipelines and preferred designs have shifted. Of the 31 reactors that began construction since the beginning of 2017, all but 4 are of Russian or Chinese design.
In May 2022, the Palisades nuclear power plant in Michigan shut down as planned. This retirement of 769 megawatts (MW) of capacity contributes to our expected slight reduction in U.S. nuclear generation in 2022. Two new reactors at the Vogtle plant in Georgia are scheduled to come online in 2023, adding 2.2 GW of nuclear power to the system. We expect the nuclear share of total generation to be 19% in 2022 and 2023, about the same share as last year.
Safety and waste concern still has few countries wary of nuclear power and hence, still is banned - Chernobyl in Ukraine (1986) and then Fukushima-Daiichi plant in Japan (2011) still have public suspicious of nuclear power plants. The bans and phase out plans of nuclear power are due to fear of another accident but this time, it is in their backyard. Whilst advancement has been made in the disposal of nuclear waste, only three countries in the world have approved sites for deep geological repositories for nuclear waste, however, not all these sites are in function. Hence, we can see once again how big a challenge it has been and will continue to be so to gain public support and political support.
There is the possibility of a nuclear comeback as more policies have become nuclear friendly - Pledges of net zero greenhouse emissions were made by seventy countries, who altogether contribute about seventy-five percent of energy-related GHG emissions. Renewables are being boosted to the frontline as they are the largest source of low emission electricity, especially by the countries which do not use nuclear energy and nor do they have any plans underway to do so in the future. However, other countries such UK, France, China, Poland, and India have not only invested in nuclear power but also proclaimed it will play an important role in their energy strategies. The USA unlike others is investing in advanced reactor designs, especially, SMRs.
The entire energy markets have been disrupted due to the Russia-Ukraine war, seeing a spike in energy prices worldwide. The war not only highlighted the unreliability of imported fossil fuels for domestic energy but also, how governments need diverse domestic energy sources. Hence, the UK plans for eight nuclear reactors whilst Korea and Belgium have postponed shutting down their nuclear power plants. Not only that but after obtaining safety approvals, Japan is planning to restart its nuclear power plants, which allows LNG resources to be shipped off to distressed Europe and the rest of the Asian markets. Nuclear power can have revival if only government interferes through policy support and tight controls.
Trend Drivers
Economics – The Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted energy markets and spiked oil and gas prices, hence, presenting a competitive market for nuclear energy. The energy would have the same effect due to the worsening climate crisis, which already had put several policymakers thinking about carbon pricing, and if this policy is pursued aggressively in the future, not only will be nuclear energy needed but be a competent resource.
Security of energy supply – Political disagreement can disrupt of energy supply, as we have seen in wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has stopped exporting gas to Finland, Poland, and Bulgaria as they refused to pay in rubbles as per Russian demand for payment instead of euros or dollars. Even Nordstream 2 project has been put on halt by Germany, a country that in 2020 relied Russian supply of more than half of Germany’s natural gas and about a third of all the oil… and roughly half of Germany’s coallxxii. The event worldwide has made countries realize the dangers of reliance on imported fossil fuels and the need for a steady domestic energy supply source. Nuclear power can act as a hedge against the susceptibility to disturbing oil and gas supply.
Rising energy and water demand along with constrained supply sources – Global population has boomed along with technological evolution and ambition of a high standard of living, which no doubt would mean a doubling of electricity consumption by 2030. To cater to the freshwater needs of rising populations, desalination plants have been opened in several countries such as Saudi Arabia, the USA, etc. These plants consume a large amount of electricity, something nuclear power plants with lower emissions than fossil fuels. It can help produce industrial fresh water on a large scale whilst supplying baseload electricity to grids.
CONCLUSION
Nuclear power is but ungainly technology borne out of the long-gone Cold War era, a bane if you will. The risks are simply too high to give in to the greenwashing image of nuclear power pandered by the nuclear industry, nuclear advocates, and pro-nuclear governments. Nuclear power may produce zero GHG emissions but nuclear waste can produce far worse consequences if it is not properly stored. Nuclear power is also treated as an existential choice because climate change has become an existential problem or will be one soon if the GHG emissions are not brought down soon. However, the truth remains that nuclear power cannot rapidly develop within the time frame we need, the SMR designs are not going to be commercialized anytime soon because of heavy and several safety checks. Renewables, on the other hand, is evolving and deploying at a much faster and cheaper rate, not only that but they are more flexible.
Looking through the economic lenses, the standardized reactors acted as an effective strategy for nuclear power in many countries such as France, however, then they decided to build even bigger reactors such as the European Pressurized Reactor. For example, the Flamanville plant, which was initially was expected to cost 3.3 billion euros and start operations in 2012 lxxiiiwith delays and additional costs is set to start operation in the second quarter of 2023, and the latest count the estimate cost had risen to 12.7 billion euroslxxiv. The UK with its Hinkley Point as 2022, has revised the operating date for the site in Somerset is now June 2027 and total costs are estimated to be in the range of £25bn to £26bn and if it finally comes on stream, British consumers will be burdened for decades with the price of the electricity produced there index-linked for 35 years from the exorbitant level of £92.50 per megawatt hour originally set in 2013lxxv. Nuclear power put its bet on the SMRs, however, there is no guarantee that they will successively work as they are developing stages and even if they do, they will not be deployed until the 2030s.
A nuclear fade case is ideal possibility, wherein the number of underway projects do not increase and no further reactors are built nor are there any lifetime extension of older reactors. The nuclear fade case was much realer in 2019, when they were explored by the IEA and World Energy Outlook by implementing them in: New Policies Scenario and the Sustainable Development Scenario respectively. However, as of 2022, there have been regulatory decisions to extend the lifetime of over 50 GW reactors. In the United States, an additional reactor has been granted an initial 20-year extension and six others approval for a subsequent 20-year extension since 2019. In France, regulatory approval has been granted for 32 reactors to be extended by ten years. These approvals are alongside EDF’s Grand Carénage programme, which runs from 2014 to 2025. It involves substantial investment in enhancing reactor safety through maintenance and technical modifications, with the goal of prolonging the lifetimes of most of the fleet of 56 reactors beyond 40 years. In Japan, two additional reactors received regulatory approval to re-start since 2019.
Nuclear energy as of now persists and bright future seems to be on horizon for it. Are we ready to take the risks that come along? Personally, I’m not and ideally, the fade case for nuclear comes becomes a reality.
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